GDP Growth Projection for Asia, 2018

04 June, 2018, 11:13 | Author: Clarence Schmidt
  • India clocks 7.7 per cent GDP growth for Q4FY18

But this did not prevent GDP growth, at 6.7% in 2017-18, from falling to its lowest rate in four years.

India's gross domestic product grew by 7.7% in the quarter ended March, the government said Thursday.

"So manufacturing at 9.1 per cent and construction at 11.5 per cent indicate a turnaround in the economy which going forward would also give a big momentum to growth", he said.

Asked about recent GDP growth downgrading by Moody's from 7.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent, he said the government would not revise GDP estimate of FY19, which is at 7.5 per cent. "Overall, we expect GDP growth to remain strong at 7.8% y-o-y in Q2, before slowing to an average of 7.1% in H2 2018".

The GDP growth during the third quarter of the fiscal was at 7 per cent. "GDP growth has been increasing continuously every quarter with growth of 7.7 per cent in Q4 of 2017-18".

For oil-importing India, the combination of a weaker currency and surging oil prices is a threat not only for the current-account deficit, but also inflation. The pickup in growth surely offers a boost to prime minister Narandra Modi, who will be seeking a second term next year.


The growth in the "agriculture, forestry and fishing", "mining & quarrying", "manufacturing", "construction", and "financial, real estate and professional services" is estimated to be 3.4 per cent, 2.9 per cent, 5.7 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, the statement said.

GVA includes taxes but excludes subsidies. "The growth is likely to realise from pick-up in consumption, especially rural consumption, with the forecast of normal monsoon, increased public sector spending and uptick in performance of the manufacturing sector in coming quarters".

"Seems like we have moved beyond the teething troubles related to GST implementation", said Tushar Arora, a senior economist at HDFC Bank. Healthy topline and bottomline growth in the corporate sector, as well as buoyant cement and steel output point to an upturn in the business cycle. Capacity utilisation remains at 75 per cent, an indication that investment activity has picked up but not across sectors.

DOWNSIDE RISKS: The recovery could be threatened by higher global crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014.

With the release of the latest figures, the country has again retained fastest-growing economy tag once again in the January-March quarter.

The gross value addition (GVA) for the January-March quarter expanded at 7.6 per cent from from 6 per cent a year ago, data showed.

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